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Prediction for CME (2023-09-22T02:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-09-22T02:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27043/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the NE of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is a filament eruption near AR 3435 (approximately (N08E17). The liftoff can be seen starting around 2023-09-22T01:28Z in SDO AIA 193/304. There is also an M1.2 flare just after the start of the filament eruption from this AR starting at 2023-09-22T02:25Z, followed by post-eruptive loops best seen in SDO AIA 131/193. Brightening can also be seen in this region in SDO AIA 304. Arrival signature: sharp amplification of magnetic field to 27nT and increases in solar wind speed from ~300 km/s to ~500 km/s, with subsequent increases in density and temperature. Alternatively, this could be the arrival of 2023-09-22T07:36Z CME or the combined arrival of these two CMEs.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-09-24T19:52Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-24T04:55Z (-6.6h, +10.09h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2023/09/22 02:40Z
Plane of Sky 1: 07:40Z; 31.5Rsun; NE Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 14:10Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction
POS Difference: 6:30
POS Midpoint: 10:55Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:15

Numeric View/Impact Type: 2
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.09
Travel Time: ~6.09 * 8:15 = 50:15

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2023-09-24T04:55Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1.25 Hours
 - Travel Time: 7.5%

Lead Time: 50.98 hour(s)
Difference: 14.95 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2023-09-22T16:53Z

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